The company had recorded a $4.7 billion increase in the contingent consideration liability related to Skyrizi last year. Investors are already flocking there for a chance at 1,000%+ returns. All rights reserved. AbbVie says it will pay down debt of $4bn in 2023, which will "bring cumulative debt pay down ~$34bn", but the company is heavily reliant on maintaining an investment grade rating. I am using a weighted average cost of capital of ~10%, which is broadly consistent with the figure I use when modelling for the other 7 members of what I term the "Big 8" US Pharmas - Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Merck & Co (MRK), Bristol Myers Squibb, Amgen, and Gilead Sciences (GILD) - which helps prove the accuracy of the calculation. Out of the most recent ratings, BMO Capital Markets Gary Nachman raised its price target from $161 to $174 with an outperform rating, while Truist Financial analyst Robyn Karnauskas raised the Abbvie stock prediction from $118 to $135 while raising rating to a buy. The company is a member of the Fortune 100 and one of the Fortune 100s Best Companies To Work For. Note that analysts ABBV stock forecasts can be wrong. (my table and forecasts). The company employs 50,000 workers across the globe. Abbvie Inc quote is equal to 152.710 USD at 2023-02-27. We expect that to happen in 2027 with continued significant growth anticipated in the following years. In the next year, analysts predict that Revenue will reach C$253.83M - an increase of 3.50%. Fortunately for AbbVie shareholders Gonzalez and his management team have had many more years than expected to prepare for Humira's Loss of Exclusivity ("LOE"), and it has never been the Pharma's ambition to build its business around a single, all-conquering but time-limited drug. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2019 and/or its affiliates. According to AbbVie CEO Rick Gonzalez, speaking on the Q2'22 earnings call, "Skyrizi's total prescription share of the U.S. biological market (in psoriasis) has increased to approximately 26%", and". Wallet Investor suggested that the price could hit $300.386 in June 2027. That certainly won't derail the oncology division however. 67.71% of the stock of AbbVie is held by institutions. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Abbvie Stock Forecast 2023 In the Biopharmaceutical Industry, Abbvie has been able to create a leadership position in the market in each business segment with different brand names in different business categories like Immunology, Hematologic Oncology, Neuroscience, Aesthetics, and Eye Care. AbbVie trades on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol "ABBV.". MarketRank is calculated as an average of available category scores, with extra weight given to analysis and valuation. Forecast target price for 03-06-2023: $ 152.58. AbbVie made the bold decision to take on a heavy debt load and bid for Allergan, with the deal being completed in 2020. Other profitable therapies include but are not limited to SKYRIZI for psoriasis, RINVOQ for rheumatoid arthritis and IMBRUVICA and VENCLEXTA for chronic leukemia conditions. Without the additional patents - >130 in total - Humira would have lost its market exclusivity in 2016, but having eventually lost protection in Europe, which has resulted in a sales decline from $6.3bn in 2018, to ~$2.7bn in 2022, Humira will finally face generic competition in the US from the beginning of this year. Receive ABBV Stock News and Ratings via Email. Allergan was a troubled company in many ways, but there is no doubting the strength of its products and pipeline. 16 analysts have issued 12-month price targets for AbbVie's shares. AbbVie has received a consensus rating of Hold. A Warner Bros. How often does AbbVie pay dividends? As such I have modelled similar, although I have included an additional revenue stream from new products which I expect to be minor in nature but ultimately contributing an additional $1.5bn to the top line. If youre new to trading, then youve probably heard the wrong thing about optionsthat theyre risky, unpredictable, or difficult. Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ABBV, BMY either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. Slide from JPM Conference 2022 presentation. Skyrizi - which inhibits the activities of IL-23 - a naturally occurring cytokine that is involved in inflammatory and immune responses - and Rinvoq - a member of the janus kinase inhibitor drug class - fit this profile. Since then, however, the stock price has fallen 18% to. The company reported $3.60 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $3.54 by $0.06. This indicates that AbbVie will be able to sustain or increase its dividend. (my tables and forecasting). I hope to see you there. The five-year dividend growth rate is just below 18%. Based on earnings estimates, AbbVie will have a dividend payout ratio of 54.11% next year. To summarize, Humira may be going off-patent, but is more than capable of delivering double-digit billion revenues for another 3-4 years, and even in 2030, it could be amongst the top 20 best-selling drugs worldwide. I look forward to seeing if Epcoritamab is approved this year, and although there is not a lot else in the near-term pipeline at this time, I also look forward to seeing how other projects may progress, e.g., opportunities in Parkinson's Disease, Alzheimer's and Cystic Fibrosis. AbbVie stock is one of the most well-known pharmaceutical companies. All generate blockbuster <$1bn per annum sales - in Stelara's case >$9bn per annum, and in Enbrel's case, >$4.5bn. psoriatic arthritis at a lower dose, again with a comparable safety profile, and has also won approval in a field where Humira has not, namely Atopic Dermatitis. The company originated as the bio-pharma segment of Abbott Laboratories and was spun off in late 2012. PEG Ratios above 1 indicate that a company could be overvalued. This indicates that the company will be able to sustain or increase its dividend. Sign-up to receive the latest news and ratings for AbbVie and its competitors with MarketBeat's FREE daily newsletter. All rights reserved. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $10.70- for the period. In this post I model AbbVie product sales to 2030 - including pipeline assets - and use discounted cash flow analysis to calculate a present day share price target. On 14 January 2022, the FDA approved Abbvies arthritis treatment drug, Rinvoq (upadacitinib), for the treatment of adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. Naturally, if there is a more effective and safe drug than Humira available for the same indication, then physicians are likely to prescribe it over Humira, or a Humira biosimilar. As per management's guidance, I am modelling for $5.7bn of revenues in 2023, with growth beginning to accelerate substantially from 2025 / 26 onwards. Whether these factors make ABBV a good investment for you or not will depend on your portfolio composition, investment goals and risk profile, among other factors. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Is this happening to you frequently? CFDs are complex leveraged instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. on the strength of its future rather than present portfolio. Multidrug Resistant Bacteria Treatment Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2023 - 2030) Published: March 2, 2023 at 2:55 a.m. My detailed modeling suggests there is 15-20% upside to look forward to in the short term and that ABBV stock remains a solid long-term buy opportunity for investors. The company projects the U.S. toxin market (where Botox is the top product) will decline by mid-single digits. Our daily ratings and market update email newsletter. View the latest news, buy/sell ratings, SEC filings and insider transactions for your stocks. Skyrizi and Rinvoq will together achieve a higher peak sales figure than even Humira could manage, even while Humira is still making a substantial top line contribution, still accounting for as much of 7% of AbbVie's total sales in 2030. Read our dividend analysis for ABBV. The division delivered >$1.65bn in sales in Q2'22, up >15% year-on-year, and with Vraylar, Ubrelvy and possibly Qulipta all earmarked for blockbuster sales - $4bn in the case of Vraylar - my forecasting suggests this division could double in size by 2030, from ~$6.6bn revenues generated in FY22, to >$13.5bn by 2030. AbbVie Stock Forecast 2022 - 2025 - 2030 | StockForecast.com GB Management has previously stated that it expects total revenues to decline in 2023 following the Humira LOE, followed by a return to growth in 2024, and a "high single digit CAGR" maintained through the remainder of the decade. Although Wallet Investor did not provide targets for 2030, its longer-term Abbvie stock prediction expected the price to hit $300.386 in June 2027. Move your mouse over a quarter or year to see how estimates have changed over time. Post-spin, AbbVie emerged as a research-based biopharma that has more than doubled in size. Excluding items, AbbVie earned $3.31 per share, beating estimates of $3.29 . Drug pricing is another issue - there is bipartisan, and international pressure on US Pharmas to reduce drug pricing, particularly outside of the US. There is an element of risk to that as clinical trial failures are common, even for a giant like AbbVie, and even CEO Gonzalez may be forced to backtrack on some of his blockbuster sales projections. The Abbvie stock forecast for 2025 had the price at $259.018. The company earns $11.84 billion in net income (profit) each year or $6.61 on an earnings per share basis. According to CompaniesMarketCap, the biopharmas market capitalisation stood at $272.38bn, making it the worlds 30th most valuable company. Invest alongside the model portfolio or simply access the investment bank-grade financial models and research. How to Decide, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Expanding in the West, One Way to Earn More From Dividend Stocks, How to Choose a Winning Dividend Investing Strategy, 3 Industries Leading the Stock Market Rebound, Oil Tankers Boost Dividends, See Continued Robust Business In '23. AbbVie product revenue forecasts to 2030. Negative dynamics for AbbVie shares will prevail with possible volatility of 1.976%. ABBV closed at $152.49 on 29 June, which was above its 200-day moving average (MA) of 136.42, indicating a bullish signal for the stocks price movement ahead, according to data from TradingView. The average price target is $163.64 with a high forecast of $190.00 and a low forecast of $133.00. Abbvie has a strong pipeline of projects ahead, and has recently received US FDA approval of its ulcerative colitis drug Rinvoq. The company's average rating score is 2.44, and is based on 7 buy ratings, 9 hold ratings, and no sell ratings. As a result I have dropped Imbruvica revenues to just over $3.5bn in 2022 and modelled for a CAGR growth of just 1.5% between then and 2030. The fact that my own forecasts are less ambitious than management's reflects the fact I have not introduced new products into my forecasts, and it will be interesting to see how management performs on that front as AbbVie has not really had to have a string pipeline while Humira has delivered such dominance in the auto-immune markets. Rinvoq's progress has been a little more circumspect, but almost as impressive. That is substantially higher than the 12% CAGR achieved between 2018 - 2022, although that period includes the additional revenues from Allergan. In my last note on AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) for Seeking Alpha - in early July - I reviewed the Big Pharma's Q1'22 earnings and looked ahead to the release of Q2'22 figures. Management initially blamed slow take-up post pandemic for the drug's declining sales, but Gonzalez also told JPM Conference attendees that "new competitive entrants has significantly lowered our sales expectations for Imbruvica". View our ABBV earnings forecast. The drug is now approved in severe Rheumatoid Arthritis, active Psoriatic Arthritis, moderate to severe Atopic Dermatitis, Ulcerative Colitis, active Ankylosing Spondylitis, with Crohn's Disease the next approval on the list. Sales of the drug reached $19.9bn in 2018 and were $19.2bn, $19.8bn and $20.6bn in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively. Shareholders of record on Friday, April 14th will be given a dividend of $1.48 per share on Monday, May 15th. In terms of market cap, it ranks third behind Pfizer ( PFE) and Novo Nordisk ( NVO ). The stock projection varied from the low price target of $135 to the high of $200. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc.2019. Finally I can present a target price for AbbVie stock in 2023 using DCF / EBITDA analysis. Assuming there are 2 highly effective drugs for 1 disease, PMedicine seeks to identify which patients respond better to each. The total revenue in 2021 was $56.20 billion with a 31% operating margin. Investors do not seem to be taking the bait, however, as AbbVie's share price has slipped by >7% across the past month, and >5% across the past 5 days. I suspect Eye Care is a division AbbVie can turn around given time, and I feel that with regards to oncology, where AbbVie has the strongest pipeline assets - lymphoma bispecific Epcoritamab may be approved to treat large B-cell lymphoma, and peak sales estimates range from $1.5 - $3bn, although AbbVie will not earn all of that since the product is co-developed with Genmab. It now expects full-year profit in the range of $13.92-$14.12 a share. Based on an average daily volume of 5,600,000 shares, the days-to-cover ratio is currently 2.1 days. Their ABBV share price forecasts range from $140.00 to $200.00. Net earnings also saw a steep rise to $4.49bn from $3.55bn, while net revenue jumped to $13.54bn from 13.01bn. Is this happening to you frequently? Between September 2021 and April 2022, AbbVie stock went on a sensational bull run, gaining 62% and hitting an all-time peak of $174. Data from two Phase 3 induction studies and one maintenance study supported the approval. The following companies are subsidiares of AbbVie: AbbVie (Gibraltar) Holdings Limited, AbbVie (Gibraltar) Holdings Limited Luxembourg S.C.S., AbbVie (Gibraltar) Limited, AbbVie (Pty) Ltd., AbbVie A/S, AbbVie AB, AbbVie AG, AbbVie AS, AbbVie Australasia Holdings Limited, AbbVie B.V., AbbVie Bahamas Ltd., AbbVie Biofarmacevtska druba d.o.o., AbbVie Biopharmaceuticals GmbH, AbbVie Biopharmaceuticals LLC, AbbVie Biopharmaceuticals Ltd., AbbVie Bioresearch Center Inc., AbbVie Biotech Ventures Inc., AbbVie Biotechnology GmbH, AbbVie Biotechnology Ltd, AbbVie Biotherapeutics Inc., AbbVie Biotherapeutics Limited, AbbVie Central Finance B.V., AbbVie Corp, AbbVie Corporation, AbbVie Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG, AbbVie EOOD, AbbVie Endocrine Inc., AbbVie Endocrinology Inc., AbbVie Farmacuticos S.A. de C.V., AbbVie Farmacutica Ltda., AbbVie Finance B.V., AbbVie Finance Corporation, AbbVie Finance LLC, AbbVie GK, AbbVie GmbH, AbbVie Holdings Corporation, AbbVie Holdings Inc., AbbVie Holdings KK, AbbVie Holdings SAS, AbbVie Holdings Unlimited, AbbVie Holdings s.r.o., AbbVie International S. r.l., AbbVie Investments Limited, AbbVie Investments S. r.l., AbbVie Ireland Holdings Limited, AbbVie Ireland NL B.V., AbbVie Ireland Unlimited Company, AbbVie Japan Holdings B.V., AbbVie Kft., AbbVie Komplementr GmbH, AbbVie L.L.C., AbbVie L.da, AbbVie Limited, AbbVie Limited Liability Company, AbbVie Logistics B.V., AbbVie Ltd, AbbVie Ltd., AbbVie Manufacturing Management Limited, AbbVie Nederland Holdings B.V., AbbVie Operations Singapore Pte. Having dived into the numbers however and looked ahead to 2030 through the eyes and guidance of management, my conclusion is that investors can probably buy AbbVie stock at current price with reasonably high hopes of making a decent ROI - perhaps 15 - 20% in the next 12 - 18 months, whilst also benefiting from a generous dividend.
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